Live Cattle

.The results of the on feed report were as friendly as you could ask for.  It reflected significant movement, lesser placements, and continual decline in the on feed numbers.  Market action was dismal after the report was released.  My analysis is based on the October fat contract as there is little predictive forecasting offered by the June and August.  It is believed inventory will be elevated and about the most that can happen is a convergence of the basis in these two contract months.  This doesn’t offer much in the way for profit potential and is a very risk laden environment when attempting to narrow a basis.  So, the October fats appear to be in a wave 1.  Of what magnitude remains unknown.  At this time, it is believed that wave 1 remains incomplete.  Therefore, I anticipate further upside potential in the October and out months.  When wave 1 is complete, a wave 2 correction will be anticipated.  This could be scary with the sore spots that have developed over the past few months.  Nonetheless, by having reconditioned myself from bear markets over the past years to conditioning myself to a fledgling bull market environment, I will continue to contend that a correction in fat prices from the October contract out, should be bought.  I believe I’ll be able to come pretty close to finding the top to this wave 1.  Were I to take a pretty wild guess, if we see the wave 1 top the first of next week, the wave 2 could last 3 to 8 trading days. This may put the wave 2 completion in just about the same time frame as the Moore Research shows a higher seasonal tendency starting.  This seasonal tendency wiggles a little, but the main trend of the seasonality is higher.  Watch for the completion of wave 1.  Upon a 50% to .618% retracement of the price range from the 5/8 low per respective contract month to what ever price the high terminates, have plans made to be a buyer with calculated risks to the low of 5/8 per respective contract month.  Factors this week keeps me friendly towards the beef market.  One factor is the settlement of the Chinese/US trade negotiations.  No longer will this be a prick in the sore spot of bullish traders.  Especially in grains.  Another factor is the continual consumer demand.  I have seen this demand in the form of an increase in franchise purchases of Wahlburgers and In and Out burgers.  As well, John Goodman has a commercial out for McDonalds that sure looks like competition for adult consumers over the “Gourmet” hamburger restaurants. Lastly, employment continues to rise.  I see no reason to believe our economy is too hot, or at a turning point where business would begin reducing workforce instead of increasing it.