“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

4/15/2026

Live Cattle:

The wave count is believed reflecting another 5 wave move higher.  If I have miscounted a step, lower price action may be a wave 4 of 5, but if correct on the count, this time, the top is in.  A trade of October under $238.77 will add credibility to this, with a trade under $236.35 confirmation.  If prices are able to trade higher from here, $5.00 to $8.00 would be anticipated.  If the lows presented above are exceeded, then I will recommend you take all steps necessary to protect the highest priced inventory you have ever laid into a feed bunk. 

 

In my minds eye, I see producers, laden with apples in their sacks, teetering on a dead limb to try to reach the last apple at the top.  If you have been hesitant, in dislike of hindsight and margin calls, get over it and start laying off this enormous risk you have already assumed.  

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Feeder Cattle:

The August feeder cattle has the better of the wave counts in my opinion.  When viewing the chart below, the wave 1 & 2 in green are the question.  If this is a wave 1 & 2, then Tuesday's high made wave 3 of 5, today's trade lower, and possibly more tomorrow, the wave 4, and then another new high to finally complete this bull market.  If the wave 1 & 2 in green are somehow connected to the correction phase, then the 5 wave count in blue, may well be reflecting the top.  A trade of August under $365.20 will help to confirm the top is in, while holding above may suggest one more new high to go.  With calculations that suggest backgrounders have entered into a wider negative margin than their cattle feeding counterpart at inception, the need to maintain the working capital invested is believed crucial.  If you have been hesitant, in dislike of hindsight and margin calls, get over it and start laying off this enormous risk you have already assumed.  

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​Corn:

Wheat was able to shake off what may have been some spreading against the sharply higher corn price.  It doesn't matter much as I anticipate all three to move higher.  Whether drought, component of energy, or simply a few of the least expensive commodities at present, all are anticipated to move higher. Cattle feeders are urged to pick a price they no longer wish to pay for feed and fix that price by buy the corn call option at that strike price.  Wheat farmers are urged to hold off on sales, with confectioner's, bread and pizza crust makers, to consider booking some flour or wheat for.  

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Energy:​

​Energy continues to be volatile with both sides of unchanged having been seen.  Draws in crude oil were a surprise to the market with refining capacity at 89%.  There were large draws in gasoline, because most refining has been leaning towards diesel fuel.  Diesel fuel was higher today and continues to hover just under $4.00 May.  I continue to anticipate energy to trade higher, as the next most probable move is believed further escalation of military actions.  Upside target for May diesel fuel is between $5.50 and $6.00.  Although cash trading may not react the same as futures, were there to have been any lower price in the physical product, with this decline of approximately $1.00, top off farm tanks and book the remainder of fuel needed to get the crop planted.  Your speculation part then becomes what to do with harvest fuel.  If higher, you got a cheaper price at planting.  If lower, you get the cheaper price at harvest.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds are a tad lower.  Equities are believed being pumped as quantitative easing, a great desire to lower rates, and commodities higher are key factors in the increase of inflation. In my opinion alone, this current economic time frames feels eerily like the pre financial crisis of '08.  At that time, the balloon (economy) lost half of its air (value) in just a few weeks.  Instead of bringing some to justice for malfeasance, the Obama administration patched the holes and started pumping the balloon back up with air (money) supplied by the printing press of the US and on to the taxpayer's back. Long way around the barn to suggest to anticipate more inflation. 

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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