“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

5/05/2026

Live Cattle:

There is seemingly a lot of congestion at this top.  Both packers and cattle feeders are losing money.  Projected margins reflect significant losses for both.  Producers have caught the attention of the US government, while prices are at all time highs.  There is way too much production and processing capacity for the number of animals, for which rationing has done very little to reduce.  Beef is no longer supporting the price of cattle, and consumers, whether evident by a government report or not, are being impacted by the years of higher core inflation and now a steady dose of commodity inflation.  These issues are headwinds to producers that may or may not present a wall of worry to climb.  As there are so many factors we can't foresee, there are ways and means of helping to minimize percentages of the risks you are already assuming.

 

Next most probable move is believed a widening of the basis, in a positive direction, shifting more price risk on to the producer.     

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​Feeder Cattle:

​The weekly continuation chart high of feeder cattle is $381.02, made in October of '25, on the October contract.  The recovery highs have fallen just a few dollars short of this previous high with every cattleman there is rooting for an even higher price.  Whether price moves $50.00 higher or $50.00 lower, I don't anticipate feeder cattle prices to hang around at this level for much longer. ​

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Next most probable move is believed a widening of the basis, in a positive direction, shifting more price risk on to the producer.

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​​Corn:

​All ended lower after a several day run higher.  I anticipate today's lower action to be a correction of the rally, with expectations of all three moving higher.  Wheat has made a hefty price correction with expectations of higher.  Corn made another new high today, before selling off.  I believe this may have been the top of a wave 1 of a larger wave 3 rally.  This suggests to anticipate a higher trade in corn.  Beans were weak,  but believed starting a fledgling bull market. ​​

 

Energy:​

​Energy was lower through the day.  I can't see much that isn't tied to the energy market.  The exceptional price move higher impacts everything and due to length of time higher, will continue to do so.  Few markets are believed trading on the their own accord with energy prices a direct influence on.  The next headline on energy could as easily push grains and oilseeds to sharply higher prices, as equally lower.  The advent of a direct correlation of other commodities to energy is making marketing and procurement decisions all the more difficult. ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds are higher.  Bonds are believed to have resumed their down trend, but are seemingly being bought aggressively in the attempt to keep rates from soaring higher. 

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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