“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

6/09/2026

Live Cattle:​

Last Thursday's low, to last Friday's high, remains the trading range for fats. I don't expect prices to come out of that range this week.  At today's close, most contract months were in the middle of the range.  I remain more concerned over factors unknown than known.  Most seem to feel that same way with the loss of over 17,000 contracts the past two trading days.  The volatility at the moment is of huge benefit.  It is offering producers an opportunity to fix a price at a level that may or may not be available in the future.  

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The positive basis continues to be supportive to futures.  Traders have thinned out a little, suggesting to anticipate more volatility and price expanse.  The detriment of the positive basis to producers is exceptionally friendly towards the packer.  What I don't foresee is the consumer being willing to pay or consume more, leading to higher beef prices. All of the above leads to expectations of the right shoulder to be created over the next several weeks to get through summer grilling and the video sales.   More marking of time may be what is in store.  

  

​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Some believe that cattle outside of quarantined areas should be worth more.  Paying more for something outside of the quarantined area, and you still susceptible to being placed inside of a quarantined area, seems to be assuming more risk for not much more reason than, you can.  Every federal, state, and local government agency has their hand in the fly situation now. This lead me to anticipate more problems than resolve.  Nonetheless, traders are narrowing basis slightly, with vertical integration believed helping to keep prices buoyed in the cash markets, no matter what. Similar to above, the positive basis is a marketing issue for backgrounders, now owning the most expensive cattle in history.  For cattle feeders though, the discounts offer an opportunity to own inventory at a $20.00 plus discounts to the index.  An options strategy could place you at an even lower price to procure inventory.  The current congestion, in a very wide price range, is expected to break out in one direction or the other. Do futures move to cash, or cash to futures?  

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​​​​Corn:

That was a lethargic dead cat bounce in corn today. The way it unfolded leads me to anticipate at least another new low.  While this may not be "blood on the streets", yet, it is a more than 10% retracement of price with a full growing season still underway.  When long term planning, I think events like this should be used to fix prices, deep into the future, for which may or may not have any benefit.  What it will do though is that were no benefit from the options position, it will suggest that prices have not risen to any extent, allowing for business as usual in feed needs.  Were something to materialize that produced a rising price, it would be of great benefit to already have those prices fixed when the top is unknown.  I don't think the commodity super cycle is over with yet, as depicted by the Dow Jones Commodity index.  This appears as a small correction so far with grains and oilseeds at the bottom pricing tier of most commodities.  ​​

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No doubt, this year's corn and soybeans are off to a good start, but not wheat.  I think it possible that wheat could have made a major wave 1 rally at the 5/12 high.  The wave 2 is currently unfolding with the low made two days ago on the May '27 contract month a 50% retracement of the entire rally.  I recommend you consider this.  Especially Millers. 

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Energy:​

Energy was lower for the day.  A wild two minute flurry of activity was seen when an already known event was broadcast by the President's tweet.  Diesel fuel moved over $.11 higher in that two minute time frame.  I continue to anticipate energy to trade higher.  Tomorrow's EIA report is expected to continue to show draws in supplies.   

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Bonds:

Bonds were soft, but not for long.  Traders seemed prompted when prices were drifting lower, so pump them up seemed to be the message, and low and behold, bonds were back making new highs for the day.  More of this is expected.  ​

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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