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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
7/02/2026
Live Cattle:
In my opinion, the first half of this year's higher trading is no Aesop's fable of "The boy who cried Wolf". Shifts in consumer spending, high inflation, and potential difficulties in meeting projected profit margins have been obvious factors that caused myself, and others to raise the alarm that prices may not go up forever. As more evidence surfaced, fewer wanted to believe there really are other factors that can make the price fluctuate lower. This has led to a 10,000-foot view of the industry. That being, producers have heard so many times that the price can or will move lower, but has shown no proof of yet; they are believed to have reduced risk management practices. There is a timeless saying on Wall Street: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.”
The weekly continuation chart is believed to reflect a final 5 wave sequence from the November '25 low to the 6/24 close. This week's expiration of June made August spot month, and its discount showing significant overlapping of previous highs, and the breaking of uptrend lines on the weekly continuation chart. A close of the feeder cattle index under $368.10 would lead me to anticipate further weakness. Basis continues to worsen for producers. Stopping the price erosion is believed more important at the moment than basis spread. To stop price erosion, buy 2 at the money puts for every 1 load of cattle covering. This is due to the 50% Delta of an at the money option. Not selling calls or futures will allow for basis convergence, if takes place with cash higher. At this time, I think it more likely that cash moves to futures and converges at the lower levels. With a plethora of derivatives, offering ways and means to help mitigate risk, what does the Wolf situation look like around your herd?
Feeder Cattle:
Corn:
Energy:
Bonds:
“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
