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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”TM
by Christopher B Swift
7/16/2026
Starting on 8/1/26, both the "Shootin' the Bull" ™ and Mid-Day Cattle Comment will be transmitted via email and no longer available on our website Monday through Thursday. Friday's Weekly Market Recap will still be posted as normal. As a client, both commentaries are included free of charge with our brokerage services . Subscribers to the commentary package will be charged $300.00 annually. A 30-day trial will be offered with billing instructions and payment link to follow.
Live Cattle:
There is a lot to say, but not much of what anyone wants to hear. Beef, whether imported or domestic, has reached price levels that have rationed the number of consumers and increased the amount of alternative product. Imported beef is most likely the largest culprit. An article read today from Reuters helps to confirm this. What has been anticipated has come to fruition.
Producers are just as likely to see basis converging with cash lower as futures higher. While there is little that can be done about the basis, price erosion continues to be a concern. Buying 2 at the money puts will create a 100% Delta factor at entry. As price erodes, strike price minus premium will widen the basis further until, or if, relief is felt from the put option.
For those that took a proactive stance, there is a plethora of options available to you. You can roll down put options, sell put option premium at strike levels you wish to be flat, or buy an out of the money call option at whatever level you wish to be long or flat a short position. As well, get your cash marketing's done while basis is so wide. This basis spread should be encouraging all hedged cattle to be marketed as quickly as possible and lifting the hedge simultaneously to capture all of what is available.
Feeder Cattle:
Downside target for the CME index is $330.00, the November of '25 low. Futures are near, or already under in the spring months. This suggests the index has a long way to decline and futures have beat them to the punch. This leads me to believe that futures could fall further, until the index nears the $330.00 level. If nears, then futures may find footing and push higher, from whatever low traders have taken them to. For the moment, I anticipate the disbelief that cattle prices can go down will continue to force sales at uncomfortable levels.
For those that bought at the money puts in the August contract to cover inventory until marketed in video sales, you have a couple of options available to you. I think it possible that puts can be sold at lower strike levels that may offset the entire initial premium, or could have enough profit to roll down. If the cattle are sold, get out and do not risk basis convergence. If still waiting on your cattle to sell, hang tight as I have no idea what cattlemen may "have" to do to get straightened out. With an idea that a lot of this week's selling is forced, there may be more to come.
Corn:
Mostly soft with a sprinkling of a few higher closes in back month wheat contract months. I anticipate all to continue higher as beans and wheat have resumed upward trends and corn trying its best to bring up the rear. Today's softer trading leads to recommending producers to buy corn call options at strike prices they no longer wish to pay for corn and in the time frame needed for delivery.
Energy:
Mixed through most of the day with diesel fuel higher. All are expected to continue higher as demand for diesel is immense and military actions ongoing in regions of significant oil production and transportation. Keep farm tanks topped off and meet with your fuel provider for help in booking fall harvest fuel needs.
Bonds:
Bonds are lower and barring government economic reports fluctuating in the tenths' of a percent, everyone else is still contending with the Biden era inflation and now Trump era inflation with only a two tenths of a percent change. As well, more government short term issued debt will hit the street next week. This has been a consistent event that isn't anticipated to let up anytime soon.
“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
