“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

4/23/2026

Live Cattle:

Conflicting news stories created a hefty day of volatility for producers to contend with.  A potential strike at the Fort Morgan slaughter plant started the session off lower with a sudden reversal when, supposedly, Sect of Ag, Brooke Rollins decided to not visit a sterile fly facility, sparking all kinds of thoughts towards the Mexican border. Although short term price fluctuation would be anticipated, were it to be opened, the damage has already been done to US producers, having lost that inventory to work with, and the Mexican producer, believed benefiting greatly from the same event. I read this morning to expect more, double digit losses in exports of beef this year.  The loss of direct to China exports is one of the larger reasons for the export decline, although I do believe China continues to enjoy US grain fed beef, it just has to be circumvented through Canada first. 

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The higher close today was needed badly after 6 days down in a row.  As I do not know how a decline will unfold, the higher trading today is providing an opportunity to make some difficult decisions a little easier. I don't know how long this little correction will last, but I don't anticipate the extent of in price to be much more than another dollar or two higher.  Therefore, here is believed another opportunity to market inventory at an improved basis, slightly higher price, no more than 3.5% from the all time high that so far could have been achieved.  Regardless of derivative used, do something to improve your position with as much working capital at stake you have.  If needing to roll up lower LRP prices with put options, or roll up existing option strike positions, I recommend getting that done sooner than later.   

 

​Feeder Cattle:

No shortage of volatility here either.  I anticipate a sharply lower trade into the first couple of days of May with expectations of a test of the March low per respective contract month.  At the first of May, the seasonal tendency picks up and reflects an upward bias until mid July.  I anticipate this part of the seasonal tendency to unfold, but I don't anticipate new contract highs, with expectations of a sloppy, sideways to higher trade to mark time into July.  By then, we will know what the Semi-Annual cattle inventory report shows, and whether drought has impacted the summer grazing.  While there may not be any more cattle to work with, it appears there will be no less either.  A stagnant market at this time would be horrible as it would have most of the negative projected margins come to fruition, and not producing a low enough trade to find margin for the next round of production.  I know how difficult marketing decisions can be.  Especially with the clarity of hindsight.  It is foresight that is sought now and however foggy it may be, the risk of running off a cliff in the fog is as good as climbing a hill in the fog. 

 

​​Corn:

Kansas City wheat blew the top out today with new contract highs.  Chicago wheat tagged behind, but made definitive headway as well.  Wheat is anticipated to move higher with KC currently the leader.  With the breakout to the upside, a wave 3 target measures to $7.70 December KC.  Even though July is the new crop contract, it won't matter as much how short the crop is, as at harvest, it will the most abundant of any other time frame.  Therefore, go out to the December or March/May of '27, where a short crop this year will produce a lower carryout into next year. Corn was able to push higher as well.  Beans sat in the time out seat for the whole day as maybe traders were using beans to spread wheat and corn against.  Nonetheless, I anticipate all to continue higher.   

 

Energy:​

Energy is higher to sharply higher again today.  Gasoline continues to make new contract highs, leading to expectations of a hefty jump in retail pump prices this weekend. If there is any truth to the cattle market being impacted from the center of the plate, energy is believed the straw that broke the consumers back when having to deal with the persistent increase in the rate of inflation.  Just the little increase of commodity inflation over the past 6 weeks has caused significant shifting in discretionary spending. I anticipate energy to continue to trade higher. 

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Bonds:

Mostly lower today. There is no denying that inflation never went down after the 2022 run up, and the rate of inflation continuing to add on to that run up.  Now with increased commodity inflation, the core inflation that has been hampering consumers is believed now impacting them. I still have no idea as to the price direction of interest rate derivatives, simply due to the obvious need to raise rates to slow inflation, but a President hellbent on lowering them. Nonetheless, there is a definitive reason for keeping rates low, it produces a lower interest payment on government debt, and keeps publicly traded companies from having to deal with higher interest rates, that may impact earning's or consumers.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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