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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
2/05/2026
Live Cattle:
The Moore Research shows a definitive negative seasonal pattern for live cattle and feeder cattle from the middle of February to the first or middle of May. I recommend you heed this seasonality. Next, the lower box trade and higher futures, and maybe or maybe not higher cash, continue to widen negative margins to packers. As much as this will most likely ruffle the feathers, and maybe even sound like an old man talking, but when you corner something, you have to kill it or let it go, because if it wants to live, it will come out fighting. At the moment, having listened to multiple speakers this week discuss the years it will take to rebuild the herd, pull more heifers out of the kill mix, and basically that the market was going to be good for several more years, from a cattle supply position, I probably couldn't agree more. These factors are believed emboldening poor choices to not manage risk. However, the packer, cornered, bleeding profusely, and having a theoretical knife held over their heads by cattle feeders' lower inventory, I have to anticipate some dramatic actions to be taken to stem the tide. The polar opposite positions of the two lead me to anticipate a change, and maybe dramatically. Fear? you are absolutely correct. Believe this is a top? I continue to be amazed at the tenacity of the cattlemen to seek the life they desire to live, suggesting we don't know to what extent they will subject themselves to. So, really long way around the barn, and have been flattered by comments I can say nothing so eloquently, on this push higher, do something to manage the most extensive working capital in the cattle industry in history and balance the bullishness of supply with potential action taken by those not benefiting as well.
Feeder Cattle:
Everything above resonates here.
Corn:
The President waved his magic wand and pulled a $.50&1/4 rally out of the bean market this morning. Wonder what he could pull out of the hat in the cattle market? The last one dropped feeder cattle futures over $80.00, and it won't matter if what he says sticks or not.
Energy:
Sharply higher. I think energy is resuming an up trend.
Bonds:
Bonds are dormant and all of my opinions on this market are not being reflected in either direction, so this market is neutral for the time being.
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