“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

5/14/2026

Live Cattle:

Open interest soared on Wednesday, adding back about half of what was lost the previous several trading days.  Further divergence between, what cattlemen and packers, think cattle are worth, and what futures traders think they are worth.  The differing is creating a widening inverted carry and basis, leading to producers assuming more risk of potential adverse price fluctuation. Hindsight remains clear, but foresight has become very murky. I anticipate a return to the lows made around mid-March per respective contract month.  If holds at that level, then a sideways to higher trade would be anticipated to carry through the higher seasonal tendency into July. 

 

​​​​Feeder Cattle:

I anticipate feeder cattle to trade down to the lows made in mid-March per respective contract month.  If holds at that level, then a sideways to higher trade would be anticipated to help create the higher seasonal tendency, and a good marketing venue for the video sales.  This analysis is literally the same as prior to the 7 day, $25.00 run up that created what is now believed a huge two-headed top.  Although two heads are not necessarily pictured in many trading textbooks, the pattern still fits. After having recommended marketings at all the other tops, and proven early in most cases, I am as anxious to market at this one as any of the others.  Not to be right, but to make sure that the risk you are assuming is well documented and you are presented with every opportunity to manage that risk.  We look forward to helping you implement your marketing goals. 

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​​​​Corn:

A lower trade all around.  As this is the first pull back from new highs or contract highs, I anticipate the price of all three to trade higher.  A wall of worry was steepened today with seemingly not much news from China about buying US grains and oilseeds.  Traders bought the rumors of a China deal and have since sold the facts there was no deal.  I have heard that more meetings are scheduled, leading to a possible reversal in this evening's trade.  Weather is perfect in the center of the corn belt and sketchy to bad in all others.  This is most evident in wheat country, but could be an issue with beans through the Delta.  As harvest will soon approach for wheat, and the wheat tour wrapping up this week, next week's wheat trading is expected to be volatile, with a large price expanse and believed higher trade.   ​

 

Energy:​

​Energy has seen both sides of unchanged with crude mostly higher, gasoline soft and diesel fuel a little lower.  Another rise in retail pump price this morning.  Consumers are expected to see even higher as I don't believe futures prices have been fully conveyed to the retail side.  If anything, retail may be attempting to hold back a little so as to not spook the consumer any more than they already are. Nonetheless, energy remains in a bull market with the situation having caused such still at play.  I anticipate energy to trade higher.  No doubt that if a truce or end comes, oil will be anticipated to plummet, if not at some point, potentially go negative again.  There will be hundreds of traders tasked with marketing as much production as possible, as far out as possible, even at the sharp discounts of back month futures.  Why would they do such, and hedge that much production so far out into the future?  It may well be the highest price ever available to them at expiration of the contract months they are marketing into.  Think about that hard as the discount of fat and feeder cattle futures, still at near their respective contract high, may well be the highest price ever to be achieved in that time frame of the future.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds are higher. Raising the price of money, that the equities market lives on, would cause great weeping and gnashing of teeth. Fortunately, or unfortunately, however you may look at it, but it appears that inflation is what the President desires and the spending by the government, reflected by the increase of the debt, is about as good of proof as needed. Growing your way out of debt is difficult for most, but impossible for those in a position where growth is limited in employment or aptitude.     

 

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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