Live Cattle

I will be traveling Thursday and Friday.  I won’t be able to produce a mid day cattle comment or “Shootin’ the Bull” commentary.  Chris Winward and Melissa Adkisson will be manning the helm.  The softer opening was replaced by a firm tone at the close. Whether “the” low or not, the basis spreads and spreads between contract months were most likely a little out of line in comparison to what they had been.  What is really interesting today is that what worked last week in the cash trade may have backfired this week.  Once trading broke lose today, the futures gained ground.  This is most likely due to the shortened kill week purchases behind us now and focus on full week kills and further demand going into the Christmas season is now the focus.  It is not that I anticipate a roaring rally out of here, but more that this correction may have already shown its hand as to the extent of the price decline.  October retail sales were slightly elevated.  Another sign the consumer has discretionary funds to spend.  Something to keep a close eye on is the oscillator on the daily chart.  No contract month has had the oscillator to trade back below the zero line in this move down.  Not to say it won’t, but if it does not, and we begin to reverse higher in earnest, it will be an excellent clue that the major wave 3 remains intact.  All of the contract months on the hourly charts have begun having the oscillator moving back towards the zero line.  Were I to get back friendly the fat cattle, I would suggest looking at the summer and next fall months to own.  The June is on my radar the most as it is this winter I anticipate fewer cattle to be placed.  With basis near even, I would anticipate the futures to push basis negative and hard at the start of the year.