Live Cattle

Here is a clip of my comments on Monday’s RFD-TV Market Day Report.  April fats scored a new high close when it exceeded the January 3rd high from the January 10th low.  Recall the pattern was viewed as a “falling off a cliff” and that I noted this pattern being one in which I anticipated a climb back up the cliff.  Today it completed this segment of the climb.  So now we have to begin to wonder if the weather is the impact on fat prices moving higher, or has the weather exposed something else we couldn’t or didn’t see?  Always more questions than answers.  Regardless, technical indicators are pointed up and spot led rallies tend to be more significant than others.  With this occurrence having happened across the board, it adds further credibility towards prices moving higher.  Although I did fall prey to the comments made by the banks and other analyst, causing a stutter step on Monday, I fell back to what has kept me from being short or overly hedged and that is, the current economic environment does not appear conducive to a bear market.  Volatile, yes.  Wide price range, yes.  However, not something like what we saw in the ’15 and ’16 time frames.  For the consumer to change current spending habits, I would want to see a decline in employment or wages, a rise in living expenses, of potentially anything out of the blue we can not see or predict.  There are a lot of those out there.  However, you can not hedge against everything and to do so would create a very unprofitable margin to work from.