Feeder Cattle

The oscillator on the feeders have not traded below the zero line on the daily charts either.  A turn up from here would suggest to anticipate a thrust of significance higher.  Feeders appear to have made a 5 wave move down.  This could be an A wave or a completed A-E declining correction.  It could be a lot of things, but in the bigger picture, the decline is perceived as a correction with the next most probable move back to the upside.  This could be the low for this move, but not necessarily the end of the correction.  Time is just as much of a correction as price.  So, this correction could last into next week.  The on feed report may or may not have much influence on the market.  This is because regardless of what the October placements are, November, December, and January are all anticipated to be lower.  Marketing’s are anticipated to remain high as demand continues to foil the best laid plans by the bears.  I think it will be nearly impossible to meet or exceed the placement level seen in 2017.  There could be a few months with an even number, but I think it difficult to exceed many of those months of ’17.  So, while prices remain soft, I continue to urge yard managers to consider a maximum price they would like to set for future inventory.  The calls were only soft today and it appears option writers weren’t willing to assume as much risk as in the past couple of days.  The offers remained elevated on the calls with few trading.  There is not a very good price above that would suggest a reversal was immanent. So, again, maybe more time is needed to help the timing of a resumption of the main trend.