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Shootin' The Bull
"Shootin' The Bull" is a daily futures and commodity market commentary, written by Chris Swift, commodities broker and founder of Swift Trading Company in Nashville, Tennessee.
With over 30 years of experience in the commodity futures industry, Chris's technical and fundamental analysis is provided for his clients and readers in an attempt to make a more informed trading decision.
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“Shootin’ The Bull”TM
by Christopher B Swift
7/14/2026
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Live Cattle:
The erosion of price is turning into a deluge. Several contract months gapped lower on the opening. This gap may be a breakaway gap that leads to taking prices away from the upper end of the trading range. The collapse in boxes, and increased beef imports, is believed the culprit behind the sell off in cattle. Recognition of the congestion at the center of the plate has been well noted. The lower box trade offers packers no incentive to bid aggressively for inventory. The past 5 months have produced an enormous top in prices that allowed for multiple opportunities to hedge against what is taking place today.
While decisions appeared difficult to make when prices were significantly higher, having to make them now will incur more risk of basis spread, recent price erosion, and option premium value. Downside targets for December and February are new contract lows. If you have been slow in managing the risk assumed, you are encouraged to speed it up.
Today, I learned the word Anfractuous. It means: full of windings and intricate turnings; tortuous. This years price action of cattle has been anfractuous.
Feeder Cattle:
A close this week under $348.25, on the weekly continuation chart, will erase all of this years gains. The bulk of higher trading from the November '25 low was done by December of '25. August under $342.75 will erase this year's gains on the August contract. As above, the erosion is turning into a deluge.
For those that took a proactive stance towards cattle being marketed on the video sale, you have some work to do. If sold the cattle, exit the options position. If going to sell this week, consider selling the options if August trades to $345.00. If not going to sell until the coming weeks, keep everything on and if desired, roll down puts or sell put options at lower strikes where you wish to become flat.
For those still waiting for new contract highs, or breakeven price levels to return, I recommend you lower your sights, calculate a basis spread you are willing to live with, and buy 2 at the money put options for every load you have to market. Cattle feeders appear to be assuming all the risk they desire at the moment without having to bid higher.
Corn:
A flat day of trading in beans and corn with wheat a tad higher. I anticipate all three to continue higher with beans and wheat believed having resumed their up trend and corn reversing from contract lows. The energy component of bean oil and corn is expected to keep both firm with any further demand or weather issues potentially exaggerating the move.
Energy:
New contract highs in the diesel fuel, but still about a dollar from the March high. I have no idea how high diesel fuel will trade, but I know it has been as high as $5.85 at the peak of 2022. Keeping farm tanks topped off has been a good way to average in the higher prices. Farmers are potentially going to take it on the chin this year with fuel prices higher at planting and harvest. How to manage fuel from here will be laden with risk. Diesel just rallied $1.00, but is still $1.00 off this year's high. If booking now, it is as possible that we see over $5.00 diesel as under $3.00.
Bonds:
Bonds were higher, but not before setting a new low in this decline. Today's CPI report gained a lot of attention due to lower rate of gain. With the recent increase of energy prices, the July CPI is expected to overturn Junes.
“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
