“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

6/11/2026

Live Cattle:​

The positive basis continues to support the futures. Cattle feeders are making a little headway with futures higher, but the basis is laden with risk that will be converged. Of the most interest is the spreads between starting feeder and finished fat.  This spread has continually reflected negative margins at the start, with mixed results at fruition, dependent upon when the feeders were purchased. With the index up this week, and futures sharply higher, projected margins are expected to continue to be negative, and could reach over $400.00 again.  Feed costs will help tremendously, but won't come close to helping out much with what is being paid for incoming inventory. 

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Traders have kept prices within last weeks range so far. October is about $1.50 higher than last Thursday's close, and $1.18 from Friday's.  Cattle feeders continue to market less inventory in an attempt to keep averages from soaring, as every new head placed is near or above previous highs.  The index is approximately $9.00 from historical high and $10.90 from last weeks low.  

Cattle feeders have seen very little price break in feeder cattle, and pretty much just higher for anything lighter.  All of the above leads me to believe cattle feeders are assuming more of the risks' assumed to produce a pound of beef.  

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​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Backgrounders are in a little better shape than their cattle feeder counterpart this week. Traders were able to rally futures more than fats, and narrowed the basis significantly. Traders pushed prices above last Friday's high as cash markets didn't fade.  Note the closer proximity to the highs made in February per respective contract month.  The February high is believed a left shoulder with current price action believed the creation of the right shoulder.  The May 20 high was in line with the February high as well. 

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For the August contract, the right shoulder high would be around $365.50. Somewhere in this vicinity is where I would look to initiate, or add to hedge positions at levels significantly above last Thursday's low. If your cattle will sell on one of the upcoming video sales, a business decision is urged over how you may feel about the market, or my analysis.  Basis is expected to remain an issue, but with as much volatility, price expanse, and potential for exceptional government intervention, due to the screw worm, producers are facing as much, if not more, risk than ever before.  Recall that all of the above in fats and feeders hinges upon the ability to push beef prices higher, and the consumer be willing to pay a higher price, or consume more. 

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​​​​Corn:

Dismal in all three.  Today's low is a new contract low for December corn.  Beans made a new low in this decline.  Wheat ended lower on the day, but was able to not set a new low.  As this has taken the wind from all sails, livestock producers are urged to consider the complete collapse of feed costs and maybe secure portions of this decline for later down the road.  

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Energy:​

Equities were tapering off, and crude was climbing, so the President tweeted an end to the war, and just like that, equities rallied and crude plummeted.  It's difficult to recall a more decisive fundamental in history to move a market, that much, in that short a period of time, than a Trump tweet. Since this is one of many, I take it with a grain of salt.  Today's price action created a huge outside reversal day to the downside.  If there is follow through in lower prices, and an actual deal, prices would be expected to plummet, as he stated they would.  There is still a nagging that the situation may be too good to be true, so again, I take this with a grain of salt. 

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On a lighter note, the first two pictures are of Coupons that were clipped for gasoline and diesel fuel that my wife found in an old Clabber Girl Baking Powder can from her parent's home place. The dates are 1945. I thought these were a unique glimpse back in time to a generation that survived, so we today could thrive. Walter Dillard was his name, from Scottsville, Ky.  

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Bonds:

Bonds are sharply higher as the President has stated he loves inflation.  So, no new story here and may not be until even deeper in debt.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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