“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

2/09/2026

Live Cattle:

Managing the historic amount of working capital, to produce a pound of beef, has become increasingly more difficult. The historic price, wide price spreads, basis spreads, and volatility of, increases the risk a producer is subjected to.  With hindsight 20/20, and a consensus of producers remarking "I won't make that mistake again", when referencing hedging, regardless of derivative, I perceive risk to be inflated, simply due to expectations of less risk being managed.  Long way around the barn, but with the Moore Research suggesting a seasonal decline in price from mid-February to mid-May, and a need to manage your working capital, I recommend you adopt the seasonal pattern and attempt to market in areas of benefit.  With mid-February being a seasonal top to mid-May, consider assuming less risk and then in May, when the seasonal tendency turns higher, be bullish if you'd like.  All in all, I anticipate a huge contracting price pattern and for it to follow closely to the seasonal tendencies. The significant price ranges are not believed sustainable, as they provide lopsided results across the spectrum of cattle and beef production.  So, although I made this statement in November, not knowing of the near double top to come, but so far no new prices have been seen and therefore, the potential for contracting price movement valid. 

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Lastly, the lower cattle numbers and out bidding of other plants suggests an unsustainable future for the processing side of the industry.  With southern cattle feeding and processing facing the most shortages of inventory to work with, I anticipate something to be done sooner, than later.  

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Feeder Cattle:

I will be following the same guide line in the feeders as fats.  The Moore Research shows a definitive lower seasonal tendency into mid-May, and I anticipate price action to follow closely to the seasonality.  As above, the enormous price swings, volatility, basis, and price spreads between contract months, opens wide swaths of price risk that will either be managed, or not. If you are going to manage the risk, then we can help you.  ​

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The bullish stance remains that cattle inventory will remain short of production capacity for years to come.  This is the only factor that I know of that is bullish cattle.  It is simply a testament as to how much risk one is willing to assume to be in a business, with a great deal of weight placed upon the sustaining of a lifestyle. Cattlemen buy and sell cattle to one another.  Beef is not moving as reflected in the box counts and grocers and restaurants are not willing to pay a higher price, reflected by the lower box beef price. The consumer isn't believed so gamey either, still having to pay all time retail price.  Of some note, there were pictures floating around over the weekend that showed dramatic price cuts for beef items,  I think there are multiple signs of beef demand softening, but the strangle hold cattle feeders have may be masking this. 

 

​Corn:

​Mostly lower with a few bean contract months plus on the day.  On the Mid Day Cattle Comment, I made the recommendation for corn and soybean farmers to use this most recent up swing to book some new crop sales.  This is a sales solicitation. Bean oil continues to be the outlier with new contract highs today.  I recommend maintaining long positions in bean oil.  

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Energy:​

​Energy started the Sunday evening session lower into Monday's trade.  By early morning traders pushed energy into the plus category and it stayed there until the close.  The volatility is high in energy, and price expanse significant, with gasoline posting a new high from the January 5th low. All three remain pointed higher.  I think it will take some easing of tensions that have been built up with Iran.  The capture of another oil tanker on the high seas may have been what gave energy the ability to trade plus on the day.  I watch diesel fuel the closest.  A trade of March under $2.36, about a nickel away, would lead me to anticipate a reversal and potentially the start of a bear market. ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds were able to creep back to plus on the day.  Bonds are going nowhere, at a very slow pace.  ​

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​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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