“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

2/10/2026

Live Cattle:

Cattle were soft today. There is little to discuss.  The Moore Research shows a definitive seasonal tendency for lower prices into mid-May.  I am going to adopt this seasonality, make as strong of a recommendation as I can to protect against the potential of this seasonality materializing, and then look to make whatever adjustments needed were it to be exaggerated or voided.  

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I noted a cartoon seen recently in which it shows a small line of people to buy silver at $30.00 and a great increase in buyers at $100.00.  I can foresee a similar instance in cattle where few appear standing in line to market at, or near historic highs, but a long line in front of potentially lower prices. It's all about being satisfied at the end of the day and apparently, these historical highs are not satisfyingly enough to warrant locking in prices. If these highs are not satisfying, at what level lower would you be satisfied marketing?  These three questions will help a great deal in making a decision.  How much risk do you wish to assume?  How much risk do you wish the market to assume, and what are you willing to pay for it?  The answering of these questions may help you to be more satisfied, regardless of outcome.    

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Feeder Cattle:

The curve is steepening to the back end. This is believed significantly detrimental to backgrounders and seemingly very beneficial to cattle feeders.  Cattle feeders have an opportunity to buy cattle 11 months from now at a very near $32.00 discount to the index, and with the ability of options spreads, could widen that out to $52.00, were prices to erode further.  If you are a cattle feeder, and concerned or elated about the lack of cattle going to be produced this year, consider this.  If you are a backgrounder, and looking to make purchases in the summer time frame of video sales, it is anticipated you will continue to be faced with paying top dollar at present, and only able to market at discounts if hedging.  The spreads, whether basis or between contract months, are wide and subject those needing to market inventory with only discounts, as top price is paid today. 

 

As the contraction of price swings remains, the next most probable move is expected to be a $67.00 decline in feeder cattle prices.  Until new contract highs are made, or a new index high, the contraction pattern remains valid.   

 

​Corn:

Corn remains lethargic with no increase in domestic demand or exports to write home about.  Domestic consumption is what is needed and there isn't much to spur that.  Beans were higher with both meal and oil higher.  These are new contract highs for bean oil and I continue to recommend being long bean oil.  ​

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Energy:​

​Energy has been lower for most of the day, but in a very narrow trading range.  Energy appears betwixt and between a bull and bear market.  The technical chart pattern is up and has a lot of room to grow.  The fundamentals appear somewhat bearish, simply because we produce a lot of oil and consumers dealing with high core inflation.  The third factor to consider is Trump tweets.  These come from out of the blue, with ramifications as little as a blip, to as much as a trend changer.  This factor will continue to disrupt some of the best laid plans. ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds were higher today and seemingly breaking out to the upside.  This is lower rates and more stimulation, leading to more inflation.  The dollar was soft, but not by much. It is weak regardless.  The equity market appears to need more money and the President is expected to do whatever it takes to keep it higher. Stimulation is expected to keep core inflation high.  ​

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​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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