Shootin’ The Bull

Offering technical & mechanical analysis of the commodity market, for the improvement of risk management.

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“Shootin’ The Bull”

Commodity Market Comments

by Christopher B. Swift

April 21, 2017

Live Cattle:

100% On Feed, 111% Placed, 110% Marketed.

The higher placement number of the on feed report suggests to anticipate a correction.  With the elevated placement number, bean counters will be attempting to see how taxing this will be to the packing industry.  If it appears it won’t produce an over 630K weekly kill, then I would be hard pressed to see cash fall to futures.  Off the cuff, it appears pretty neutral for the fat market.

 

Feeder Cattle:

The elevated marketing’s suggests feeders will remain in demand.  With it perceived so many are coming to market before June, there may be some slacking of inventory through the summer.  Especially if pasture conditions are good.  It may take a hefty bid to pull them off grass.  Not much else happened this week. The new highs in both the oscillator and price leads me to anticipate further upside potential.  The on feed report may be the primer for a minor correction, but I would not anticipate it to last very long.

Corn:

I continue to be wrong on my analysis of grains.  Weakness prevails at every corner.  Swapping horses in mid-stream won’t make me right either.


Crude:

Energies sold off sharply again today.  This decline wipes out 75% of the most recent gains two weeks ago.

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FutureSource:

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Being a commodity broker introduces me to all aspects of agricultural production.  Crop insurance is one of those aspects and it has been a pleasure watching my son excel in this field.  Although Swift Trading Company is not associated with C & H Insurance, I have no reservation recommending Will’s expertise and the services he provides.
C & H Insurance Commitment
With the recent changes made in crop insurance programs, C&H Insurance is even more determined to provide outstanding service to its clients.  Keeping abreast of the ever changing and challenging agricultural environment, we attempt to expose risk and capitalize on opportunities.  The personal services provided by Will Swift at C & H Insurance are listed below:
  1. Help determine the level of coverage and type of insurance plan by:
  • Analyzing your current financial situation and taking current breakeven goals into consideration
  • Analyzing your current marketing plan. This includes, your current positions, future sale goals, and how potential market changes will affect your marketing plan.  Then we make the extra effort to make sure the insurance plan you choose now will still be the right choice at harvest.
  • Analyzing land locations to determine what the best unit structure would be for that current year and where your greatest risk lies.
  1. Mapping of your planted acres and record keeping in book form.
Products offered to C&H clients include:
  1. Catastrophic insurance
  2. Yield Protection
  3. Revenue Protection
  4. Revenue Protection Harvest Price Exclusion
  5. Group Risk Protection Plan
  6. Hail & Fire Insurance
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  8. Livestock Gross Margin
  9. Pasture Range and Forage
To discuss your crop insurance options for the upcoming season, please contact Will Swift at 573-472-9948 or email William@cropNhail.com .
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Will Swift

Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Commodities Brokerage, Commodity Market Analysis, Hedging, Price Risk Management

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