Shootin’ The Bull

Offering technical & mechanical analysis of the commodity market, for the improvement of risk management.

“Shootin’ The Bull” is a market commentary written end-of-day, recapping the days market activity. The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision. In today’s volatile trading environment, access to real time information is perceived advantageous in an ever changing market. Our Mid-Day Cattle Comment has a free 60 day trial, then $150 annually. This service is free for active clients and comes with the added benefit of having a broker just a phone call away to answer your questions. (Click either link above to subscribe.)

“Shootin’ The Bull”

Commodity Market Comments

by Christopher B. Swift

February 24, 2017

Live Cattle:

Futures traders opted for the attitude of “sell it or smell it” today.  I can’t recall such disparity in price.  If I were to interject anything it would be this, the Elliott Wave Theory is based upon repetition of traders to do the same thing over and over again. Hence the pattern formations that we see and attempt to decipher future movement from.  It has been noted in books I’ve read concerning this that the consensus of the wave 2 can actually be higher than at the actual wave 5 high or low.  As in this case, the pessimism appears to be greater at this point, than when prices were at the contract lows in October ’16.  The wave 2 is the transitional wave between the factors of, is the bull/bear market still intact, or has a reversal materialized.  The industry is perceived at this juncture.  The question building every day is, will the consumer absorb the increase of inventory, or will the inventory overwhelm the consumer?  The industry has been pulling cattle to meet current demand.  With all the expectations of supply, I’ve seen nothing yet that suggests demand will be quelled.  I continue to perceive the current price action to be a major wave 2 correction, and the back months discounted too severely for the demand anticipated. This is not to say December can’t, or won’t, trade back down to $97.42 for a full .618% retracement.  However, with the on feed numbers coming out as anticipated, This does not appear to be a surprise to anyone.  Demand, and length of time it has been sustained continues to surprise the market.  This is not a recommendation, but I will be looking for signals to own the December contract.

Feeder Cattle:

Although ugly, the feeders cleared up the question as to whether the wave 2 was complete or not.  It is not as of today.  Come Monday though, with the vacuum still perceived on, I would anticipate yards to continue to want to acquire inventory.  The next two weeks may remain soft due to the seasonal tendency, but after that, the seasonality’s turn higher through July.  I continue to perceive the price action to be a major wave 1 and 2 with anticipation of a wave 3 rally.


Grains closed the week as lifeless as they were all week long.  The softer trade did little to analysis of beans and wheat.  Corn remains in the same place it has been for weeks.  No US dollar movement of significance is potentially wearing the nerves thin of excessively long funds positions.


Traders continue to move crude sideways with no discernable price moves.  Like the grains, a great deal is built upon the anticipation of a weaker US dollar.  I’ve read some encouraging news, but it apparently had no impact today.


Bonds were higher today.  Nothing else has transpired to make me think one way or the other.  The correction continues in bonds and I anticipate upon completion, the down trend will resume.


New Account Forms

Live account forms on line. They are very simple to use and can be filled out in a matter of minutes. I look forward to earning your business. If you have any questions or would like further information, please feel free to contact me at anytime.


FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 1
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 2
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 3
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 4
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 5
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 6
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 7
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 8
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 9
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 10
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 11
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 12
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 13
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 14
FutureSource Commodity Market Chart 15

Being a commodity broker introduces me to all aspects of agricultural production.  Crop insurance is one of those aspects and it has been a pleasure watching my son excel in this field.  Although Swift Trading Company is not associated with C & H Insurance, I have no reservation recommending Will’s expertise and the services he provides.
C & H Insurance Commitment
With the recent changes made in crop insurance programs, C&H Insurance is even more determined to provide outstanding service to its clients.  Keeping abreast of the ever changing and challenging agricultural environment, we attempt to expose risk and capitalize on opportunities.  The personal services provided by Will Swift at C & H Insurance are listed below:
  1. Help determine the level of coverage and type of insurance plan by:
  • Analyzing your current financial situation and taking current breakeven goals into consideration
  • Analyzing your current marketing plan. This includes, your current positions, future sale goals, and how potential market changes will affect your marketing plan.  Then we make the extra effort to make sure the insurance plan you choose now will still be the right choice at harvest.
  • Analyzing land locations to determine what the best unit structure would be for that current year and where your greatest risk lies.
  1. Mapping of your planted acres and record keeping in book form.
Products offered to C&H clients include:
  1. Catastrophic insurance
  2. Yield Protection
  3. Revenue Protection
  4. Revenue Protection Harvest Price Exclusion
  5. Group Risk Protection Plan
  6. Hail & Fire Insurance
  7. Livestock Risk Protection
  8. Livestock Gross Margin
  9. Pasture Range and Forage
To discuss your crop insurance options for the upcoming season, please contact Will Swift at 573-472-9948 or email .
I look forward to earning your business.
Will Swift

Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Commodities Brokerage, Commodity Market Analysis, Hedging, Price Risk Management

FACILITATE TRADE: It’s what we do that sets us apart.