Shootin’ The Bull

Offering technical & mechanical analysis of the commodity market, for the improvement of risk management.

“Shootin’ The Bull” is a market commentary written end-of-day, recapping the days market activity. The Mid-Day Cattle Comment is a market commentary written during trading hours, providing subscribers with pertinent, real time information to help readers make a more informed trading decision. In today’s volatile trading environment, access to real time information is perceived advantageous in an ever changing market. Our Mid-Day Cattle Comment has a free 60 day trial, then $150 annually. This service is free for active clients and comes with the added benefit of having a broker just a phone call away to answer your questions. (Click either link above to subscribe.)

“Shootin’ The Bull”

Commodity Market Comments

by Christopher B. Swift

January 12, 2017

Live Cattle:

On January 13 & 14, I will be in attendance of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association tradeshow.  Stop by the “Swift Trading” booth to say hello.

Current conditions remain.  Cattle prices are being cash led and when cash stalls, futures trade lower.  This is perceived due to thoughts that inventory and weights will increase down the road with consumer demand remaining somewhat questionable as to whether it will be just sustained or grow.  The flip side of this is that there are not going to be any increase in slaughter numbers for another 3 to 4 weeks regardless.  So, if weather were to become a factor, or consumer demand create a slightly harder pull on inventory, then cash would be anticipated to remain elevated.  Therefore, it would be hard to see the futures pull too far away from cash.

Feeder Cattle:

Volatility has reared its head in the feeder market.  There is not much to do at this level.  If you missed the top end, I would set my sights on a 50% retracement of this most recent decline to begin offsetting inventory that remains unpriced. At this time, there is not much to anticipate one way or the other.  Further firming of the back months fats will go a long way in keeping feeders from plummeting, but something really impressive with the fats would have to materialize in order to offset the inventory perceived coming.

Corn:

As many times as I’ve been snookered in my analysis, it is nice to have some justification every now and then.  The beans blowing out of the shorter term down trend while pushing through and closing into resistance of the $10.32 bottoms, suggests to anticipate further upside movement.  Meal came to within $2.50 of exceeding its high for the past 2 months.  Oil was hyper volatile, but unable to hold the gains that the beans and meal did.  This is not bothersome at this time.  Corn continued to meander and wheat found strength from the 3.4 million acre decrease in seeding’s.  All in all, not a bad day when you throw in the further movement lower in the US dollar, and higher energy prices.  Commodities appear to have just a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.


Crude:

After the bulls beat the bears, they appear to be wanting to skin them to.  Having retraced more than 75% of the previous loss this week leads me to perceive the down move a correction, or part of, and the higher price action the resuming of the up trend.  Although crude is seemingly having a difficult time pushing out of the range, both unleaded gas and diesel are well above the same time frame price highs that appears to be resistance for the crude.  I continue to anticipate a higher trade in crude.

Bonds:

Bonds remain forming a correction.

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FutureSource:

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Being a commodity broker introduces me to all aspects of agricultural production.  Crop insurance is one of those aspects and it has been a pleasure watching my son excel in this field.  Although Swift Trading Company is not associated with C & H Insurance, I have no reservation recommending Will’s expertise and the services he provides.
C & H Insurance Commitment
With the recent changes made in crop insurance programs, C&H Insurance is even more determined to provide outstanding service to its clients.  Keeping abreast of the ever changing and challenging agricultural environment, we attempt to expose risk and capitalize on opportunities.  The personal services provided by Will Swift at C & H Insurance are listed below:
  1. Help determine the level of coverage and type of insurance plan by:
  • Analyzing your current financial situation and taking current breakeven goals into consideration
  • Analyzing your current marketing plan. This includes, your current positions, future sale goals, and how potential market changes will affect your marketing plan.  Then we make the extra effort to make sure the insurance plan you choose now will still be the right choice at harvest.
  • Analyzing land locations to determine what the best unit structure would be for that current year and where your greatest risk lies.
  1. Mapping of your planted acres and record keeping in book form.
Products offered to C&H clients include:
  1. Catastrophic insurance
  2. Yield Protection
  3. Revenue Protection
  4. Revenue Protection Harvest Price Exclusion
  5. Group Risk Protection Plan
  6. Hail & Fire Insurance
  7. Livestock Risk Protection
  8. Livestock Gross Margin
  9. Pasture Range and Forage
To discuss your crop insurance options for the upcoming season, please contact Will Swift at 573-472-9948 or email William@cropNhail.com .
I look forward to earning your business.
Will Swift

Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Commodities Brokerage, Commodity Market Analysis, Hedging, Price Risk Management

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